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Study of 2 m temperature variation correction during transitional processes of temperature in Sichuan
FENG Liangmin, ZHOU Qiuxue, CAO Pingping, WANG Jiajin
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2023, 41 (1): 164-172.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-01-0164
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Based on the daily 2 m maximum and minimum temperature data from 1990 to 2019 in Sichuan Province, the temperature transitional weather processes have been analyzed statistically. Then a correction model of temperature change during transitional processes of temperature has been performed by using of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) daily reanalysis data and the LightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) algorithm.The results show that the area with the most temperature transitional processes is the slope transition zone between the plateau and the basin, while the least is in the basin. The number of temperature transitional processes in each region has an obviously seasonal differences with the most in spring and the least in winter, and the temperature transitional processes in spring is significantly more than those in the other three seasons. For the training set from 1990 to 2019,the LightGBM model has good performances with an overall accuracy of 78.64% and a mean absolute error of 1.35 ℃. For the independent testing set in 2020,the LightGBM model has an overall accuracy of 53.60% and a mean absolute error of 2.19 ℃, which are better than those of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting), SCMOC and SPCO models.

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